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林左鸣:树立大国意识 打赢经济战争
  • 来源:中国航空报
  • 发布时间:2015-07-19

优发娱乐平台,2016年八月份,这一珍贵的壁画进行了技术重生利用三维矩阵技术采集壁画数据。  我个人认为,中国企业的海外并购,特别是中国制造企业的海外并购,确实是实现中国制造业转型升级的一个非常重要的渠道,这是毋庸置疑的。据透明售房研究院的数据显示,大江东近3个月的外地购房者比例超过四成,富阳区外地购房者比例也明显上升。  ——焦点四:能否缓解养老保险基金收支压力?  有人提出,延迟退休是否因为养老金发放压力加大?多位专家指出,延迟退休政策出台的目的,并非为解决局部地区出现的基金当期收不抵支问题。

优德w888,俗话说术业有专攻,干部也不可能是文武全才,甚至可能是滥竽充数,只是在现行的制度下,在聘任制的探索中,难免还是有很多的不足和漏洞。据了解,去年西藏财政对农牧民直接和间接补贴达到每人4486元。这些问题严重影响党和人民事业发展,必须下大力气加以解决。例如,重体力岗位上的劳动者、丧失劳动能力到一定程度的劳动者,以及工龄长的劳动者,应允许在基准退休年龄前提早退休。

优发娱乐平台,  研究生教育  加强高等学校与科研院所联合培养博士生工作,促进在重大工程、项目实践中培养博士生,继续教育,强调利用各类教育资源,推动制造业企业职工培训全覆盖。据《纽约时报》报道,特朗普不止一次地炫耀说,他女儿伊万卡儿时住过的套房里,以童谣为主题的瓷砖出自华特·迪士尼之手。我2015年在北京的时候就在推油用牡丹这个项目,这次来青海以后,经过半年多的调研,发现青海的扶贫产业基础较为薄弱,尤其是可持续的产业,油用牡丹种植则可以很好地解决这个问题。此外,交通违规难处理是共享汽车发展的最大“拦路虎”。

       近期,国内A股市场反复遭遇恶意做空,给国人的财富造成了空前灾难,触及了系统性金融风险的底线。面对这次空前的“股灾”,作为国有特大型军工企业,中国航空工业集团公司(简称“中航工业”)坚决贯彻国务院国资委的部署,在集团及所属子公司大力增持上市公司股票的同时,全面动员全体干部职工为国“护盘”。眼下,“A股保卫战”激战正酣。在此形势下,7月17日,中国航空报特约记者带着一些社会普遍关注的问题,独家专访了中航工业董事长、党组书记林左鸣。林左鸣对此有诸多精彩论述,例如:

       这一轮牛市,从操作思路看并没有问题,问题是过去我们的资本市场在走向市场化、国际化的过程中,引入的一些国际上通行的操作办法,在这一轮股市暴跌中被做空势力恶意使用。

       在A股打响这场经济战争,是冲着五星红旗来的。

       我们对这场反击做了一个很好的预判,认为广大散户、小投资者是中航工业本次“护盘”的铁杆同盟军。

       .......

       林左鸣首次提出了“魔方经济”的概念,对“地摊经济”、“垄断经济”、“超市经济”和“魔方经济”等经济发展模式进行了比较分析,并指出中国必须大力发展“魔方经济”。

       恶意做空导致“股灾”

       中国航空报:6月15日以来,大盘急转直下,上证指数不到20个交易日暴跌了1700多点,市场满目惨绿。人们对造成股市暴跌的原因讨论异常激烈,对此您有什么看法?

       林左鸣:我们可以先来回顾一下上一轮牛市之后的股市情况。2007年10月16日,上证指数冲上了6124的高点之后开始回落,特别是2008年进入金融危机后,我国股市持续下挫,一直跌至2000点以下。后来在国家经济刺激计划的推动下,一度在2009年8月回升到3478点,但此后便连续震荡下跌,从2012年下半年至2014年上半年,都维持在2000点左右的低位徘徊。应该说,股市的长期低迷,对我国经济发展十分不利,特别是我国正处在经济转型升级和产业结构调整的关键时期,如果股市仍然一片死寂,产业投资缺乏腾挪空间,无疑对经济转型形成掣肘。因此,通过采取一些国际通行的政策手段来刺激股市,推动股市由“熊转牛”是非常必要的。如果股市能够进入长牛、慢牛,形成一个长期稳定活跃的资本市场,将对我国调整产业结构,推动传统产业转型发挥非常重要的作用。

 

       从这一轮股市由熊转牛的过程看,操作层面的思路其实是无可厚非,也是与当前经济改革发展的进程相适应的。特别是我国股市经过了长达7年的熊市之后,低迷的惯性极大,市场信心严重不足。在此情况下,按照市场化原则出台一些与国际资本市场接轨政策和手段,对股市进行刺激,引导股市由熊入牛,应是有利于市场健康发展的。去年下半年以来,在国家经济改革红利及相关政策措施的刺激下,中国股市被全面盘活,投资者信心也被充分调动起来,大盘指数节节攀升。而在大盘指数一路上涨的同时,为了防止股市过快上涨,2014年6月国家就开始逐步重启IPO,特别是在今年上半年,上证指数迈上4000点之后大规模放开IPO。IPO放开后,一方面能够对二级市场的资金形成分流作用,推动中国股市进入慢牛、长牛;另一方面能够把中国股市的盘子做大,形成一个社会性财富标志群,老百姓不仅可以不再去非理性炒房产了,还可以大量投入股市,这既解决房价过快上涨的问题,又能为民众提供一个资产保值增值的投资平台。更为重要的是,进入长牛、慢牛的资本市场,将有助于解决民间资本的投资问题,对落实“大众创业、万众创新”的战略非常重要,也为经济转型提供更多回旋的余地。所以这一轮牛市,从操作思路看并没有问题,问题是过去我们的资本市场在走向市场化、国际化的过程中,引入的一些国际上通行的操作办法,在这一轮股市暴跌中被做空势力恶意使用。当然任何事情都有利有弊,决不能因噎废食,我们引入的这些工具,如果以正常的心态来操作并没有什么问题,而且有利于资本市场的健康发展,但是一旦有居心叵测者借此恶意做空,那情况就另说了。

 

       中国航空报:您刚才说本次A股暴跌可能存在居心叵测者恶意做空,现在社会上也有类似观点,认为这次股市跳水已经不是简单的市场调整,而是一场经济“战争”,对此您怎么看?

       林左鸣:说我们面临着一场经济战争,这是显而易见、无需置疑的。我们可以简单回顾一下这一轮股市暴跌的过程。本来这轮股市在5月初上涨到4500点左右时已经进入调整,如果调整到位再慢慢上涨,就有可能进入健康的“慢牛”通道。但是五月中旬就突然开始急速往上拉升,极大引爆了整个市场,不少人在这个时候被吸引冲进了股市。但是到了6月12日,A股冲上了5178的高点后,6月15日开始掉头;而6月18日,也就是中国香港政改方案搁浅的这一天,A股进入暴跌通道,当天上证指数下跌182点,第二天更是直接低开低走,重挫307点。毫无疑问,做空势力选择香港政改搁浅这一政治事件发生时出手打击中国股市,其险恶用心路人皆知。此后我国政府连续出台降息、降准等重磅利好,但股市居然毫不理会,就在6月29日亚投行签字当天,A股仍遭到暴力砸盘。在此形势下,管理层组织了券商出资1200亿元增持蓝筹股,并决定停止新股发行、允许养老金入市等一道道护市金牌不断出台,但A股仍旧满盘惨绿,港股及境外中概股也暴跌不止,市场信心濒临绝望。

       而这些时间点上的惊人巧合,显然并不是偶然,而是一场有预谋、有准备的恶意做空,是来势汹汹的针对中国发起的一场经济战争。这场战争还影响到大宗商品的价格和人民币汇率等大幅波动,给我国经济发展带来了严峻挑战。众所周知,股市表面上是通过购买股票以取得资本的投资回报,实际上也是购买对整个经济体的信心、预期和评价。而这场金融战争对中国股市的重创,特别是在中国加快改革发展、转型升级的关键时期,其本来目的正是打击中国社会的信心面,并配合各类喧嚣而上“唱空中国”的论调,诱导人民群众对中国政府不信任,对中国共产党的领导不信任,最终破坏中国改革进程,颠覆中国共产党的执政地位,直至击溃整个中国经济。所以,在A股打响这场经济战争,是冲着五星红旗来的

       中国航空报:很多人认为,中国改革开放虽然已经30多年,但是资本市场仍然相对内向和封闭,去年11月开通的沪港通资金通道额度也设有上限,在这种情况下,境外空方势力是如何做空中国股市的?

       林左鸣:实际上,在中国经济高度开放发展的今天,实现资本的境内外转移并不难。在中国境内一直活跃着一些国际著名的投资公司,他们控股、参股了无数国内企业,而这些企业的业务都是国际化的,资金进出并不难。举个简单的例子,投资者在中国境内外各注册一个公司,其在国内的公司生产一个产品,假设成本只需1元钱,但是却以5元钱的价格卖给其注册在境外的公司,这样就可以把5元钱低成本的境外资金,从境外转移至境内。如果其境内企业只需用1元钱维持再生产,剩下的4元钱就可以投入资本市场。无论是通过做空、还是做多,只要在资本市场获利以后,之前5元钱卖到境外注册公司的产品,稍作精加工之后又以20元钱的高价买回来,这样一来一回,不仅在中国股市里剪了“羊毛”,还轻易就把“羊毛”输送出去了。

       实际上做空势力要组织力量攻击中国经济,办法还会有更多。比如国内一些企业,热衷于在境外上市,一个企业设计出一个新概念,还有一个好业绩,并不见得就能顺利上市,还得有人投资才行。如果有的企业拿大把的钱砸盘做空,万一出现损失的话,有人承诺从国际资本市场给予补偿,即所谓的“堤内损失,堤外补”,自然也是有人敢铤而走险的。而对于恶意做空势力而言,打掉中国经济顺利发展的势头,他们就是终极赢家。所以,与中国打经济战,在具体办法上有太多的可能,对此我们决不能太幼稚!当然,这次股市暴跌之所以被引发,还在于股指期货、融资融券等做空机制被广泛使用,在国内实体经济下行压力增大以后,不少中小企业不但倾其所有,而且利用杠杆融资,满仓入市炒股,一旦遭遇做空伏击,往往血本无归,损失惨重。

       总之,做空势力对中国资本市场非常了解,能够很好地抓住弱点进行有效攻击。从A股暴跌的情况看,做空势力重点选择创业板等中小盘股下手,因为这些股票盘子较小、便于炒作概念、且容易暴涨暴跌。同时,部分投资者在空方诱导小盘股大涨的时候也盲目跟风,特别是那些利用杠杆融资、配资了大量资金跟进炒作的投资者,在遇到市场被做空开始砸盘时,如果反应慢没有及时卖出,自然就被套了进去。当股价下跌到一定程度时,融资买入的股票就面临被强制平仓风险。如果这些投资者持有一些蓝筹、权重股作为压箱底的财富标志,在这种情况下,为避免持有的小盘股被“强平”,就不得不甩卖权重股来补充保证金,这就进而拉动权重股下挫,并拖累大盘指数。大盘指数又影响市场信心,使卖盘急剧增加,“踩踏”事件随之发生,引发众多“小股民”恐慌逃离,形成“甩卖+暴跌”的恶性循环。毫无疑问,这次组织做空A股者,其“段位”并不低,绝不可以轻敌和大意,我们必须全力以赴地迎战,不获全胜,决不收兵!


       中航工业的“护盘”行动

       中国航空报:面对突如其来的暴跌,中航工业此前有没有觉察,或者心理有所准备?

       林左鸣:去年下半年股市进入牛市以来,中航工业所属上市公司的股价也大幅上涨,特别是今年以来,中航工业系股票市值从2014年12月31的4600多亿元,上涨到2015年6月初最高的9700亿元,年内翻了一倍还多。面对股价的快速上涨,集团公司党组就高度关注,尤其是大盘在4500点还没有调整到位的情况下,就急剧飙升到5000多点,在这过程中我们就感到来势不妙,认为可能不是市场的自发行为,或许有恶意势力介入。对此,集团公司党组迅速组织开会研究对策,一方面,建议大股东在遵循有关法律法规的条件下,在合规范围内适当减持一些股票,以此提醒股民不宜头脑发热、盲目追涨;另一方面全面提高警惕,筹备资金,以防在股市被恶意做空后,能够出手护盘,今天看来当时的判断确实没错。现在社会上有一些人认为央企在高点抛售而现在出手护盘是在高抛低吸,但实际上根本不存在。今年以来,整个A股市场产业资本减持超过5000亿元,但整个央企系统减持仅仅300多亿元,占所有减持额度的1/10都不到。在产业结构转型和国有企业深化改革加快推进的关键时期,我们对所属上市公司的股价很有信心,没有理由也并没有大规模减持。

       中国航空报:股市暴跌后,中航工业是如何应对的?采取了哪些救市措施?

       林左鸣:在这次股市暴跌后,集团公司党组高度重视,并于7月4日起开始研究“护盘”的具体措施,准备投入全面战斗,坚决护盘。整个“护盘行动”由谭瑞松总经理挂帅坐镇指挥,“兵马未动,粮草先行”,顾惠忠副总经理负责筹备和提供充足的“弹药”,吴献东副总经理作为前敌总指挥,董事会秘书陈元先、副总经济师兼战略资本部部长李平、特级专务兼计划财务部部长李耀等组成“护盘”特别行动小组。过去人们往往了解中航工业有一批优秀的航空专家,其实我们还有一批“段位”不低的“股神”,他们在这次“护盘”战斗中全力以赴,发挥了非常重要的作用。

       截止7月6日,基本形成救市的思路:第一,准备好充足资金,制定好操作方案,做到随时可以投入“战斗”;第二,做好舆情宣传工作,拟定《中航工业关于维护资本市场稳定发展的倡议》等材料,准备在集团公司网站、微信发布;第三,由于事关重大,按照组织原则第一时间上报国资委,待国资委批复指示后立即行动。特别是我们对这场反击做了一个很好的预判,认为广大散户、小投资者是中航工业本次“护盘”的铁杆同盟军,因为这次股灾虽然大量散户损失惨重、市值蒸发大半,但是真正“割肉”离场的并不多,他们正等着市场企稳后,通过增资来降低持股成本。在这种情况下,我们认为,只要我们在市场上组织反击,一旦股价企稳翻红,必然有散户增资,跟着我们一起挥师向上,这样市场的流动性又可以带动起来,市场信心也会逐步恢复。

       7月8日上午,按照国务院国资委“做负责任的股东,不减持上市公司股票”的要求,集团公司立即组织研究制定应对方案,并在具体“护盘”操作方案获得国资委认可后,全面投入护盘行动。7月9日,在集团所属A股上市公司开盘6支股票跌停的情况下,采用打开跌停股、促绿变红、促红涨停的操作原则,吹响了“反击”的号角。截止9日上午收盘,中航工业所属上市公司股票除停牌的深天马A(000050)外,20支股票全线飘红;截止下午收盘,20支股票全部涨停,港股市场中航工业系股票也全线大涨。从7月8-10日,中航工业及下属企业累计增持A股约2.85亿元,H股5368.78万元,合计约3.38亿元,且后续还在不断增持。

       在这次“护盘”行动中,我们很好地发挥了舆情宣传的作用。7月9日在中国航空报发表评论员文章《为国家护盘,航空人有责》,同时刊登《关于鼓励中航工业所属上市公司股东及董事、监事、高级管理人员增持上市公司股票相关事项的通知》;按国务院办公厅和国资委安排,集团公司副总经理吴献东接受中新网记者采访的专访稿《中航工业筹集数十亿资金护盘,已买入近2亿元股票》于7月9日晚间在中国新闻网发布。同时广大干部职工通过微信、微博大量转发了上述宣传材料,极大带动了信心和人气,形成了万众一心、同仇敌忾的良好局面。

       按照最初的计划,我们准备了数十亿真金白银准备投入市场进行“血拼”,而且后续还要滚动筹集资金,并鼓励广大干部职工购买集团公司股票,坚决打赢这一场“A股保卫战”。现在看来,准备的措施还没有全部用上,已经在前几个交易日的战斗中初战告捷。

       中国航空报:现在一些观点认为,航空工业的股票市盈率倍数很大,上市公司的经营业绩也不及一些蓝筹绩优股,因此股票可能存在高估的问题,对此您的观点是什么?

       林左鸣:我认为,中航工业所属上市公司的股价并没有高估,虽然有的股票市盈率倍数较大,看似有些偏高,但是航空工业作为军工高科技产业,其价值的核心在于具有强大的科技实力作为支撑。实际上,我们有很多重要的技术由于保密原因,并没有对外公布,如果这些项目进入资本市场,其价值前景不可估量。有几个消息我可以透露一下:第一,我们正在全力以赴推动新材料研制,我们已经研制出来的新材料,将极有可能掀起一场材料进步的革命。第二,我们正加大力度对新能源进行研究,中航工业作为全产业链发展的高科技企业集团,一直致力于突破解决新能源问题,而我们将来推出的新能源,也必将创造新的价值。第三,我们正全面推进新信息技术的变革发展,并在一些关键技术领域取得重大突破,将来我们的新信息技术一旦推出,也必将创造巨大的效益。综上所述,中航工业所属上市公司的股票不存在高估问题,我们的核心价值体现在我们的技术上,在这些高精尖技术的支撑下,中航工业所属上市公司一定能够稳步、健康、蓬勃发展。


       中航工业的“魔方经济”

       中国航空报:在这次A股遭遇战打响之后,有观点认为世界经济大战已经打响了。对此您怎么看?

       林左鸣:当前,世界经济的不确定性因素明显增多,从俄罗斯受到全面制裁到希腊面临债务危机,再到欧元体系遭受经济攻击,包括这次我国股市遭遇的重大打击,这都不断向我们发出警告,或许世界经济大战已经打响,我们必须动员公众树立大国意识,深入思考如何积极应对。

       要实现企业基业长青,国家经济稳定发展,由企业优秀的商业模式来构成整个社会经济健康发展的状态,显得尤为重要。我认为,今天世界各国的社会经济主要可以分为三种模式:

       第一种是“地摊经济”。这种经济模式的状况是无序松散、各自为战、随波逐利、内讧内抗,是放任自由性的经济模式。在市集中,小摊贩和赶集者各取所需,竞相吆喝喊价,买卖交易一把一利索,并没有明确的战略目标。这种经济模式的特点是缺乏主流方向,难于适应需求变化,是典型的短期经济行为。应该说,目前世界上大部分国家都属于“地摊经济”。

       第二种是垄断经济。这是一种具有大兵团作战能力,可以一致对外的经济。早期的垄断经济靠的是契约,当时的企业基本是独立的产业企业,不一定有资本的联合,企业间通过契约的形式相互约束,统一定价、统一对外控制资源和市场,形成了垄断,也就是所谓的“托拉斯”经济。这种经济基本的模式是确立支点、整合优势、选择方向、强势做大,是霸王鼎立性的经济模式。其特点是:利用自身优势扩张整合,形成只有“强-强”对抗的态势,实现把优势化为强势,再把强势化为攻势,可以达到重点发展,重点应对市场的目的,形成了垄断性经济行为。但是这种模式明显不利于现代市场竞争和良性发展,因此这种商业模式已被世界性的反垄断制度所叫停。现在市场中尚能形成垄断的主要是靠专利技术。若没有绝对优势的专利技术,要形成实际上的寡头式的垄断经营并非易事。因此,目前国际上的技术性垄断企业,也都是“并蒂莲”(双寡头)模式。由于技术发展突飞猛进,即使像美国柯达公司这样极具垄断性的企业,也难逃破产的厄运,与柯达共成双寡头的日本富士也不得不黯然淡出。所以,这正是垄断经济的问题所在,在当前科技迅猛发展的时代,技术垄断很容易被颠覆和超越,仅靠技术维持领先并不一定是持续、稳定的。现在垄断经济在世界经济中只是小部分,而且主要存在于企业层面。传统意义上的“托拉斯”,其实已经失去大范围存在的基础。在国家层面,由于反垄断法的制约,很难做成普遍意义的垄断经济。

 

       第三种是“超市经济”。在世界大部分国家是“地摊经济”的时候,可以说只有美国超越了“地摊经济”,做起了“超市经济”。把这种经济模式比喻为超市,是因为在这种模式下,美国的经济就如同“沃尔玛”,其它各国的企业要通过美国的平台企业才能走向世界市场,成为其产业链中的一环,由于没有直接面向最终消费者的机会,没有市场话语权,只是一个专业化的生产机器,被美国经济牢牢控制住,大量的利润被美国经济的平台型企业攫取。甚至以前风光无限的创新型企业,在平台型企业出现之后,现在的市场地位也已大不如前,成为了平台型企业业务链中的一个专业化单元。之所以说美国是一个“超市经济”国家,是因为美国经济具有强大的金融资本操盘和控制能力,它是以金融资本为基本平台,打造成就了自己的“超市经济”地位。

       可以说,以前是“一流企业(国家)做标准”,现在已经是“一流企业(国家)做平台”。他们通过打造集成网络、创新商业模式,形成了“超市经济”模式。而且随着信息技术的飞速发展,世界上已经出现超越金融、利用信息技术发展“超市经济”的新趋势。比如谷歌、阿里巴巴、腾讯等都是新兴平台型企业,他们掌握着信息的增值通道,并利用巨大的“流量”,通过建立一个能将“流量”变现的生态系统,打造从“流量”积累到变现的新型商业模式。“超市经济”是一种集约优势、利益分成、随机变化、强势经营,具有固定性(平台性)的经济模式。它的特点是:有特定的主流方向,杂而不乱,聚集力强,优势明显,是一种“地主”式的经济行为,只要控制了土地(平台),人们就只好为他打长工。

       “超市经济”区别于“地摊经济”最大的一个特点,就是排兵布阵,集聚联动。企业层面的集聚联动是对集成网络、供应链的管理,例如美国的波音公司在民机业务上,通过转包和风险合作,打造全球集成网络,坐享丰厚的利润。又如我国的小米公司也是通过集成网络管理,实现了“零库存”,达到企业价值最大化。而国家层面的集聚联动是产业间的相互联动,特别是产融结合。美国经济正是通过产融结合,让金融资本在经济运行中“坐庄”,形成对“货源”和“卖家”的控制,捞尽好处。

       中国航空报:您把当前世界经济模式分为这三种模式很新颖生动,能不能进一步分析一下,美国是如何通过“超市经济”获取利益的呢?

       林左鸣:中国古代的军队布阵有“三军”之说,和现代的“海陆空三军”不同,它指的是“前军、中军、后军”。对美国来说,其长期奉行且屡试不爽的“三军”阵法就是美元、美媒和美军,正是通过立体运用这三军,美国才能一直牢牢掌握着世界经济主导权、制文化权和军事霸权,始终保持着极为牢固的世界老大地位。其中,美元是美国“三军”的核心。在美元保持世界财富标志地位的情况下,美国经济早已摆脱了国际贸易竞争以物流对物流的初始阶段,进入到“信心换物流”的更高层面。美国经济越是发展,美元的地位越是强大,则越能用信心换取资本和实物产品。发展中国家把辛辛苦苦生产出来的产品送到美国这个超级“超市”,超额的财富换回的只是作为用来压箱底的财富标志(美元),为了保值,再将获取的美元投资到美国的债券等资产上,名义上成为了美国的债主,表面上看似获得了财富标志,实际上却拱手将自己的财富交由美国经济控制,无非就是满足了自己有点财富压在箱底里这样的心理需求。

       除了对物流的掌控,对资金流的掌控更是关键所在。正是由于“超市经济”的特点,美国可以通过发达的经济和金融体系吸收全世界大部分的流动资本,让国际金融资本成为“庄家”,掌控着整个“超市”。它以美元为工具,轻而易举地将自身一部分运营成本转嫁到其他国家,剥夺他国财富为自己谋利。例如,美国经济往往在疲软时采取积极的财政政策,一旦出现财政赤字便通过增发货币来弥补,由此带来的美元贬值变相减少了他国手中美元资产的价值。因此,美国货币政策的空间远强于其他国家,由于美元是国际贸易结算货币,所以其超发的货币往往可以被其他国家所吸纳。

       对美国经济来说,维持这种运行模式最根本的就是保持美元的主导地位。那么,任何有可能赶超的经济体和货币都是其伺机打压的对象。欧盟经济体和欧元是其打击目标,中国经济体和人民币也是。所以,当希腊危机使欧元面临着前所未有的挑战,美元是乐见其成的,甚至美元恨不得趁此机会一举击溃欧元,解散欧盟。而对于中国,早在这次“股灾”之前,有人就精心策划,采取了行动。在央企刚刚开始集中管理的时候,他们就从各方面派出重要的金融机构到中国进行游说,希望国有企业走专业化道路。这样就能把中国的国有企业纳入到它的“超市经济”大盘中去,成为“盘中餐”,其意图就是让中国经济的“货”大部分只能拿到美国经济的“沃尔玛”去卖,中国经济就只能依靠美国经济,为其打工挣点“零花钱”。

       以民机为例,波音等寡头制造商把低附加值制造环节转包出去,把自己打造成为了一个民机制造产业的大超市,我们作为供应商只能把生产的零部件产品卖给他们。但是,凭借技术和平台优势,波音等公司在签合同时将零部件转包生产的价格压得极低,并且还要求平均每年下降几个百分点,根本不考虑成本增加和我国国内通胀因素;而波音等公司的民机不仅不降价,还每年要随其本国国内通胀水平相应涨价。反观国内价格水平,三十多年前的改革开放初期,贵州三线航空企业职工年均工资只有700多元,现在达到7万多元,涨了大约100倍,水电气、材料、设备等相关生产资料的价格也不可同日而语。但是我们生产的转包产品却还要不断降低价格,以提高国际竞争力。所以说,这场经济战其实早就打响了。对此,我们要有清醒的认识。

 

       中国航空报:面对美国经济的这种打法,在这次集团公司部署“护盘”行动会议上,您明确提出要构建“魔方经济”的发展模式,来打赢这场战争。您能否谈谈“魔方经济”具有什么样的优势?

       林左鸣:“地摊经济”肯定是打不过“超市经济”的,而垄断经济在现在的经济发展环境中也是不现实的。片面强调发展专业化,如果没有相应的产融结合措施,通过资本纽带连接在一起,那么再大的专业化企业也不过是形成了碎片化的“地摊经济”。我认为,我们国家必须打造“魔方经济”。其实专业化并非不好或者不重要,如果对专业化企业不加以整合,任其各自为战,就只能是低水平的“地摊经济”;如果相应的专业化板块,按照“魔方经济”的理念整合起来,那就大不一样了,必将发生质的变化。所谓“魔方经济”,它是由三个维度构成的一个十分稳定的结合体。这三个维度分别是:全产业链、全价值链和全品牌文化链,也就是通过全产业链、全价值链和全品牌文化链发展形成一种三维立体互动的模式。这种模式可全攻全守,首尾呼应,受到攻击时就可以抱团应对,如同一个刺猬,让攻者无从下口,根本打不垮,也拖不烂。具体而言,“魔方经济”是一种整合利益群体,容介各方优势,构成“魔方”共同体,形成多变态势的随机互补性经济模式。它的特点是:利益共享、优势互补、多点强势、共击一点,是一种典型的容介态板块优势经济行为。在“魔方经济”中,关键是要形成三个维度或业务链轴,全产业链对应技术与制造的科研生产轴,全价值链对应资本与资产的运营轴,全品牌文化链对应营销与服务的市场轴。三个维度(轴)利用资本纽带连为一体,是易于实现基业长青的商业模式。

       目前,世界上没有任何一家企业完全做到了“魔方经济”的形式,美国的GE公司在杰克·韦尔奇任CEO的时代,曾朝此目标努力过。首先,它是力图向全产业链发展的。作为航空发动机的全球领军企业,它在能源设备等方面也毫不逊色。其次,在杰克•韦尔奇时代,它是产融结合,全价值链发展的。在金融危机爆发前,GE金融业务的收入占其总收入约2/5,利润约占其总利润的50%。这种产融结合的模式,助推了GE从技术成功到商业成功的嬗变。其中,GE航空租赁公司拥有1200多架大型飞机,租赁给全球300多家航空公司,这些飞机全部选用GE发动机,这种“内需”极大拉动了GE航空产业发展。虽然,金融危机后,金融业务不怎么挣钱了,但对全产业链、全价值链和全品牌文化链发展的企业来说,有时个别业务就是要不挣钱,甚至可以稍微赔点钱的,只要通过业务组合,形成强大的综合效应,实现整体利益最大化和基业长青。更何况GE的金融业务只是暂时受到宏观环境的影响。现在,GE把金融业务出售了,事实上这样做离“魔方经济”越来越远了。第三,GE公司通过品牌、文化和市场服务,构造了良好的商业生态。它拥有卓越的世界品牌和NBC(国家广播公司),并且在市场服务方面下了很大功夫。其维修业务收入占到航空发动机业务的约70%,使得GE从发动机提供商,转变成为客户提供更有效利用发动机资产运营方案的提供商。

       但是,要想形成“魔方经济”是有条件的,一定是要大国、大企业和大市场。市场不够大的小国,是根本做不到的。我们做个假设,春秋战国时期,中国分崩离析,假如当时匈奴打中国的话,完全可以把我们干掉。但到了汉代,中国实现大一统,且经过文景之治的发展,打下了坚实的基础,经济繁荣、社会稳定,匈奴再下手,就晚了。打经济战道理是一样的。现在,我们搞“魔方经济”,某种意义上就是像秦始皇统一中国以后的汉武帝时代,整个经济体形成了三维的联动呼应机制,对手要想攻击,是很难的。

       中国航空报:您提出的“魔方经济”理论是否就是您经营企业的秘诀,如何用您的理论来引导中航工业发展呢?

       林左鸣:这个问题说来惭愧,我在企业里摸爬滚打几十年,既在国有企业干过,又在乡镇企业干过;既搞过技术,又干过政工、做过经营管理,在企业经营理论方面真是毫无建树的。如果要说在实践中曾摸索出什么经营管理的秘诀的话,其实是捉襟见肘的,我认为充其量只有两个:一个是元宝曲线,就是要通过核心业务的优化组合与战略协同,在注重价值创造的同时,更加注重整体竞争实力的打造,以兼取“微笑曲线”和“倒微笑曲线”之长,构建起企业价值创造的“元宝曲线”;另一个就是“魔方经济”。事实上,现在中航工业就是按照元宝曲线和“魔方经济”的模式在努力进行实践的。

 


       元宝曲线

       在产业链方面,航空工业具有先天优势。航空工业从材料开始,到元器件、系统部件,再到整机,甚至到运营服务,产业链长、辐射面宽,完全有可能打造成全产业链发展的模式。而且,航空工业发展的投入很大,如果不能利用航空高科技来发展民品、赚取效益,是巨大浪费;如果不能用军转民的效益来“反哺”军品,仅靠国家的有限投入,也将极大制约装备发展。因此,我们以航空核心技术和产业为依托,按照技术同源、产品同根、价值相关原则,全面发展军、民用航空产业、非航空民品产业和现代服务业,在技术和产业上形成了军民融合、良性互动的生动局面,有效提升了企业的市场竞争力。2014年,中航工业非航空民品和现代服务业的利润,约占企业总利润的70%,形成的利润和资金池,很好地“反哺”了航空主业发展。

       在价值链方面,我们大力开展资本化运作,拥有29家上市公司,全集团资产证券化率超过60%,中航飞机、中航投资等子公司成功实现整体上市。同时,我们打造自己的金融平台中航资本,其拥有证券、信托、租赁、财务公司、期货、产业基金、财险等多种业务牌照,于2012年成功实现整体上市,使我们拥有了国内首家金融控股上市企业,为航空产业发展提供强有力的金融支撑。截至2014年底,中航资本管理资产规模近9000亿元,与2008年整合时相比,增长超过15倍;营业总收入80多亿元,增长超过6倍;利润总额37亿元,增长超过12倍。其通过服务主业资本运作、协助主业资金管理、利润分红、现金收购集团资产等方式为主业提供了丰厚的回报,有力支持了航空工业的发展。

 

爱飞客 航空俱乐部

       在品牌文化链方面,虽然是我们的弱项,但近几年我们下了很大功夫。特别是在当前经济“新常态”下,我们提出把航空时尚文化与产业经济发展结合起来,用互联网打造“爱游客”,即互联网+汽车营地;“爱飞客”,即互联网+航空沙龙;“爱馨客”,即互联网+养老经济;“爱创客”,即互联网+创意空间;并开发自主品牌的“航空大世界”,即互联网+航空主题乐园。利用“大平台”+“大数据”打造全新业态,构建中航工业创意经济产业布局。前不久,我们在第十届贵州旅游产业发展大会上,隆重推出了中航•爱游客品牌,展示了直升机空中观光旅游、新型房车等,收到了非常好的宣传效果。总之,我们正努力在品牌文化链上下功夫来促进全面市场营销,打开制造业服务化的新局面。

       从国家层面来说,中央企业深化改革也可以依照“魔方经济”的方向进行。党的十八届三中全会提出要打造国有资本投资控股公司,事实上,我们可以通过这样的途径打造一些“魔方经济”企业,而这些企业又可以相互持股、相互呼应、相互支撑、立体运作,最终实现我国牢固稳定、灵活可变、宜攻宜守的“魔方经济”。

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